FWR Football Ranking Procedures
FOOTBALL WORLD RANKING

General overview:
Football world ranking is a new ranking system developed to compare the relative strenght of the men's national football teams.
The first difference respect other rankings is given by the constants used for the importance of the match. The differentiation between the various tournament, indeed, is bigger and the ranking will reflect better the importance of the results achieved. The World Cup and the continental finals will cause a great upset to the ranking, qualifiers will move a limited number of points while the friendlies will have only a minimal impact. The FWR formula could be customized to have a ranking more or less reactive, respect recent results, simply choosing the correct dividing factor. The choosen value for the FWR ranking indicates that rating of a team can be completely renewed after 20 matches, if these matches have a constant K=1,00. Another important difference, the formula allow to have negative points for the winner of a match (and positive points for the loser opponent), if the margin of the victory is lower than expected. A weaker team could improve its rating even losing with a good performance against a team much stronger. On the other hand, a strong team could lose points against a weaker team if the margin of the victory is not good. This should ensure the ranking will converge better towards the real strengh for the various national teams.


DETAILED RANKING SYSTEM EXPLANATION

The FWR formula:
P=Pbef+(OR-Pbef+R+V)/20*K


P: New ranking points.
Pbef: points of the team before the match; 
OR: points of the opponent team (before the match);
R: Points for the result. These points basically are assigned for a win, a draw or a defeat, but the goal difference is taken into consideration too (+/- 100 points for each goal more scored/conceded). In detail, the values for R are:
win (with goal difference +1): R=600;
draw: R=0;
defeat (with goal difference -1): R=-600;
If the difference respect the opponent is more than 1 goal, R=600+(100*N)(for a win) or -600-(100*N)(for a defeat), where N is the number of goals exceeding 1.
Particular rule for games ended at extra-times or penalty shoot-out (only for single-leg matches): R=300 for the winning team, -300 for the losing team (half win and half defeat). In two-legged play-offs only the result of the regular times will be considered. 
V: Venue of the match: -50 points for the team playing at home, +50 points for the team playing away, 0 points for both teams if they play on neutral ground;
K: importance of the match (a list of the values is described below).

Competitions and K constants:

2,00 - Fifa World Cup finals, Olympic games*;
1,50 - Continental finals;
1,00 - FIFA World Cup qualifiers, Olympic Games qualifiers*;
0,75 - Continental qualifiers, Nations League finals, UEFA/CONMEBOL Finalissima;
0,50 - Nations League group stage, Solidarity Cup;
0,25 - Friendlies and Friendly tournaments.

In final competitions, the play-offs for the third-place or for other places have a reduced value as follows:
1,00 - third place match on Fifa World Cup finals, Olympic games*;
0,75 - third place match on Continental finals;
0,50 - third place match on Nations League finals;

Double validity: if a match is valid for two competitions (i.e. World Cup qualifiers and continental qualifiers), the greater value is applied.

*Olympic games and Olympic Games qualifiers are included only in the calculation for the women's ranking

Results taken into account
In the calculation, all the games are included between senior national teams full or associated members of one of the six continental confederations (UEFA, CONMEBOL, CONCACAF, CAF, AFC, OFC), even those that are not Fifa members. In general, are excluded from the ranking all the unaffiliated representatives that are inactives for many years and for which the nationality of the players is not verified by an official organization. Also games involving age-limited teams, B teams or CHAN teams are excluded.  

Awarded results
As general principle, the results achieved on the pitch will be used for the ranking, and awarded results will be not taken into account.

Example of calculation
Match: Team A-Team B 2:0 (World Cup qualifiers, K=1,00)
Assumption: Team A ranking points = 2598,598; Team B ranking points = 2395,720; Team A playing at home;
Points calculation for Team A:
Pbef = 2598,598
OR = 2395,720 
R = 700 V = -100 
K = 1,00
P=2598,598+(2395,720-2598,598+700-100)/20*1,00=2618,454 (+19,856)
Points calculation for Team B:
Pbef = 2395,720
OR = 2598,598 R = -700
V = 100 
K = 1,00
P=2395,720+(2598,598-2395,720-700+100)/20*1,00=2375,864 (-19,856)


Inclusion of new nations (rookie teams)
A new associated national team will enter for the first time in the ranking with the same points of the last ranked team. A team that has played less than 10 match from the first entry, is marked as "rookie" team. The "rookie" teams are identified in the ranking list with the number of games played showed in parenthesis next to the name. When a match involves a "rookie" team, a special rule is applied for the constant K, since the rating of the "rookie" team is considered not yet realistic. For each one of the first ten games played, the rookie team will receive the maximum K constant (2,00) irrespective of the category of the match. The opponents will receive the minimum constant (0,25). In the particular case that two rookie teams are involved in the same match, the constant 1,00 will be used for both of them. The normal calculation will start as soon as the team has played the tenth match.

Penalisations for inactivity
Contrary to other points-exchange systems (like eloratings.net), a national team inactive doesn't preserve its rating indefinitely. The ranking indeed should represent the actual strenght of each team (or get as close as possible to it), but it's impossible to know the actual strenght of a team inactive for a long time, because of the lack of the necessary comparison parameters, that are the games. Furthermore, a team inactive has no results at all, so it makes sense if it lose positions respect teams that had recently played.
For these reasons, we will apply penalisations to national teams not reaching the required minimum of 4 international games played per year (the period considered is from 1 january to 31 december). The following penalisations will be applied:
3 games played: -10 points;
2 games played: -20 points;
1 game played: -30 points;
0 games played: -40 points;

The penalisations will be applied once at the end of each year. The rating of the last ranked team is the minimum limit after the penalizations. As a consequence, the team already in the last position cannot be penalized at all, and the the distance in points between the first ranked team and the last ranked team will remain unchanged.
As additional rule, a team completely inactive for 4 years (after 4 consecutive -40 points penalisations) will be deleted from the ranking. A deleted team that returns to play, must be considered as a new team for the reintroduction in the ranking. The described procedure for "rookie" teams must be used and new points will be assigned.
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, that caused many problems for all the confederations and the national FA, the penalizations will be skipped for the year 2020, and a minimum required of 5 games played will be calculated for the whole biennium 2020-2021.

 

 

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