World Football ELO ratings


The our main ranking is Football World Ranking.
In this page you can find an alternative ranking based on the well known ELO formula. It is different from the unreliable Fifa elo ranking (Fifa's people showed even the incapacity to use an existent formula and applying it correctly), but also from the well knowed
Differences with
-the I constants are set to give better the correct importance to the various tournaments;
-the constants are also greater to have a ranking better corresponding to the most recent results, especially after the main tournaments;
-different and improved method to consider the goal difference in the formula;
-correction of the results when a decision is taken later for rule violations or ineligibility of players (it seems incredible but does not correct in such cases);
-Only real national teams, active in the international football, are taken into consideration and ranked. The ranking does not show unaffiliated teams representing territories, or composed by players of another nation, or teams inactive for decades;










The Elo formula:

P = Pbefore + G*I *(W - We)

- P: points after the match;
- We: expected result of the match: We = 1 / (10(-dr/400) + 1) where dr = [Pbefore of Team A - Pbefore of Team B+V]. V is the venue of the match and it is equal to -100 for the team playing at home, +100 for the team playing away, or 0 for the both the teams playing on neutral ground;
- W: results of the match (1 = win; 0.5 = draw; 0 = defeat).
- Pbefore: points before the match;
- I: importance of the match (see values listed below);
-G: Goal difference. G = 1 when a game is won by one goal or ended in a draw. If the game is won by more than one goal, G is increased by adding 0,5*NG, where NG is the number of the goals exceding 1;

Rule for matches ended at extra-times or penalty shoot-out: applied only in single-leg games (tournament kock-out round): W=0,75 for the winner, 0,25 for the loser. In such cases G = 1. In two-legged games instead the results in the regular times will always be considered.

Rule for new teams entering in the ranking for the first time:
A new team will enter for the first time in the ranking with the same points of the last ranked team in the same confederation. A team that has played less than 10 match since it was included in the ranking, is considered as "rookie" team. "Rookie" teams are identified in the ranking with the number of games played in parenthesis next to the name. When a match involves one or two "rookie" teams a special rule is applied for the constant I, since the rating of the "rookie" team is considered not yet realistic. There are two possible circumstances:
- Match involving one "rookie" team: the constant applied for the type of match will be 2*I (doubled) for the "rookie" team, while it will be 0,5*I (halved) for the opponent.
- Match involving two "rookie" teams: the constant will be I (the normal constant) for both the teams.

Penalties for inactivity
A 5% reduction of the team's ranking points will be applied for an inactivity longer than 1 year. The penalty will be applied in the first ranking published after the limit date was passed. If the team returns to play after the limit date, but before the new ranking will be published, the penalty will not be applied. A second 5% penalty will be applied after the second consecutive year of inactivity, and a third after the third consecutive year without games. A team inactive for more than 4 years will be deleted from the ranking. A deleted team that returns to play, must be considered as new team for the reintroduction in the ranking. The described procedure for "rookie" teams must be used and new points will be assigned.

Importance of the match values (I):

FIFA World Cup: 120;
Continental Finals, Confederations Cup: 90;
World Cup qualification: 75;
Continental qualification, Nations League, AFC Solidarity Cup: 60;

Friendly matches and friendly tournaments: 25.

This ranking started with matches played from august 1, 2018. The initial ratings are derived from points of the main ranking published in august, with a conversion formula.

For the ranking calculation, all the games are included between senior national teams who are full, associated or provisional members to one of the six continental confederations (UEFA, CONMEBOL, CONCACAF, CAF, AFC, OFC), even those that are not Fifa members. All the games involving unaffilated teams or age-limited teams are excluded. Forfeited matches for whitch a result is assigned, but not played, are not taken into consideration.


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