World Football ELO ratings
FOOTBALL WORLD RANKING

 

This alternative ranking is based on the well known ELO formula. The goal of this experimental ranking is to demonstrate that it is easily possible to have a ranking a lot more accurate than the stupid FIFA ranking, but with the same simplicity. Despite we do not consider the goal difference, like Fifa, the ranking will reflect better the results in the recent main competitions. Fifa has demonstrate that it is not even capable to use an existent formula and apply it correctly.
See also our main ranking to see a better accurate Football World Ranking

CURRENT RANKING

Ranking July 2019 >

Next scheduled ranking: 1 August, 2019

July ranking Facts & figures:
Teams playing in the last month: 154
Leader: Brazil (unchanged)
Ranked teams: 219
Best mover by points:
Haiti +193,9886 (up from position 81 to 41)
Madagascar +159,3022 (up from 116 to 72)
Algeria +144,2837 (up from 75 to 49)
Jamaica +138,5614 (up from position 78 to 51)
Curacao +108,6926 (up from 121 to 85)
Biggest drop by points:
Nicaragua -121,9910 (down from 126 to 153)
Qatar -108,8490 (down from 14 to 26)
Nigeria -108,0380 (down from 30 to 45)
Burundi -105,8340 (down from 118 to 144)
Costa Rica -93,4701 (down from 27 to 40)

CURRENT RANKING BY CONFEDERATION

UEFA >

COMNEBOL >

CONCACAF >

CAF >

AFC >

OFC >

PROCEDURES

The Elo formula:

P = Pbefore + I *(W - We)

- P: points after the match;
- We: expected result of the match: We = 1 / (10(-dr/400) + 1) where dr = [Pbefore of Team A - Pbefore of Team B+V]. V is the venue of the match and it is equal to -100 for the team playing at home, +100 for the team playing away, or 0 for the both the teams playing on neutral ground;
- W: results of the match (1 = win; 0.5 = draw; 0 = defeat).
- Pbefore: points before the match;
- I: importance of the match (see values listed below);

Rule for matches ended at extra-times or penalty shoot-out: applied only in single-leg games (tournament kock-out round): W=0,75 for the winner, 0,25 for the loser. In two-legged games the results in the regular times will be considered.

Rule for new teams entering in the ranking for the first time:
A new team will enter for the first time in the ranking with the same points of the last ranked team in the same confederation. A team that has played less than 10 match since it was included in the ranking, is considered as "rookie" team. "Rookie" teams are identified in the ranking with the number of games played in parenthesis next to the name. When a match involves one or two "rookie" teams a special rule is applied for the constant I, since the rating of the "rookie" team is considered not yet realistic. There are two possible circumstances:
- Match involving one "rookie" team: the constant applied for the type of match will be 2*I (doubled) for the "rookie" team, while it will be 0,5*I (halved) for the opponent.
- Match involving two "rookie" teams: the constant will be I (the normal constant) for both the teams.

Penalties for inactivity
A 10% reduction of the team's ranking points will be applied for an inactivity longer than 1 year. The penalty will be applied in the first ranking published after the limit date was passed. If the team returns to play after the limit date, but before the new ranking will be published, the penalty will not be applied. A second 10% penalty will be applied after the second consecutive year of inactivity, and a third after the third consecutive year without games. A team inactive for more than 4 years will be deleted from the ranking. A deleted team that returns to play, must be considered as new team for the reintroduction in the ranking. The described procedure for "rookie" teams must be used and new points will be assigned.

Importance of the match values (I):

COMPETITIVE MATCHES:
FIFA World Cup: 160;
Continental Finals, Confederations Cup: 120;
World Cup qualification: 100;
Continental qualification, Nations League*, AFC Solidarity Cup: 80;
*initially used 60 for the UEFA Nations League 2018-2019 and the qualification for the first edition of the Concacaf Nations League.

NON-COMPETITIVE MATCHES:
Friendly matches and friendly tournaments arranged in the "FIFA windows" for international matches**: 40;
Friendly matches and friendly tournaments arranged outside the "FIFA windows" for international matches**: 20.
**If only a part of a friendly tournament is played inside a Fifa international window, all the games of the tournament will receive the constant I=20.

This ranking started with matches played from august 1, 2018. The initial ratings are derived from points of the main ranking published in august, with a conversion formula.

For the ranking calculation, all the games are included between senior national teams who are full, associated or provisional members to one of the six continental confederations (UEFA, CONMEBOL, CONCACAF, CAF, AFC, OFC), even those that are not Fifa members. All the games involving unaffilated teams or age-limited teams are excluded.

PAST RANKINGS

June 2019 >
May 2019 >
April 2019 >
March 2019 >
February 2019 >
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December 2018 >
November 2018 >
October 2018 >
September 2018
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